Weeks 1 & 2: ACFC 1-1 San Diego Wave, and ACFC 1-1 Portland Thorns
A Few Stats from the First Two Games
On the surface, I think that we’d look at a pair of 1-1 draws and say, “Not great, but not bad.” That’s true, and actually, digging into the stats just made the picture murkier for me. In large part, this is because aside from the score, there was not a lot that was similar in these two games. Angel City is clearly trying to play a different style, but without a proper head coach in place, I think that it’s hard to precisely determine what that new style is or is going to be. There is only so much an interim coach can do.
Starting with the first game, I want to look at Possession. It was 61%-39% in favor of San Diego. Last year Angel City did have one game at 38% Possession, but it was against North Carolina, who play the most possession-heavy football in the NWSL. In general, though, Angel City was focused on controlling the ball; there were only 5 games out of 26 last year, in which Angel City had less than 50% Possession. They averaged 53.69%, third highest mark in the league, and in the two previous games against San Diego, Angel City had 51% and 52%, respectively. Part of this is also that San Diego has a new manager, and in the past, he has favored controlling possession, so it makes sense that he wants to do the same. It’s more surprising that Angel City was willing to let them (or maybe San Diego just had that much control).
In the second game, Angel City did have more possession, finishing with a 53%-47% advantage, and against a Thorns team that is also very different from last season, but did have more possession in their opening game. Of course, this is only two games. so it’s hard to look for patterns, but these are kind of polar opposites, especially in that Angel City was dominated at home, but maintained possession at Providence Park.
The thing that didn’t change in either match, is that our opponents had more Shots and more xG. In the first match, Angel City had 11 Shots (5 On Target) for .7 xG, while San Diego had 17 Shots (6 On Target) for 1.3 xG. Against Portland, it was 10 Shots (5 On Target) and .5 xG for Angel City, while the Thorns had 21 Shots (9 On Target) and 1.7 xG. Angel City’s -1.8 xG Differential through these first two games is the second worst mark in the league, with only Chicago being worse. When a team’s performance is this far removed from the underlying stats, it usually spells trouble.
Non-Statistical Observations
However, I think that there are some extenuating circumstances. Some chances don’t get counted by xG, like when Alyssa tried to take the ball around Sheridan, but Sheridan just got a finger on it to knock it away. And I think that with only two games played, I’m putting more faith in the eye test than statistics right now. And what I see says that a pair of 1-1 draws is fair. I think that Angel City has looked really dangerous at times. Their two goals were very different. Against San Diego, it was a lightning counter attack, with only three passes, and in fact, Fuller’s assist came from within her own half. In both games, I think that Alyssa has looked better this year than maybe at any other point in her career. I really think that she’s starting to look like a true star, and constantly a threat to score.
Against Portland, it was nine passes, keeping possession patiently until they could work the ball into position. And I feel like everyone was talking about the angle, but the shot was actually my least favorite part of the goal. The build-up is really well executed to get the ball to Gisele on the wing, and I like her pass to Fuller, even though it’s a little behind her. I like it because rather than trying to pass to an teammate, she’s ensuring that it’s not going to a Thorns player. It’s a subtle distinction, but an important one. And then my favorite part is that Fuller collects the ball, and then proceeds to roll Sam Coffey, one of the best defensive midfielders in the game. The shot itself is saveable, I thought, but it takes Arnold by surprise, and I’d wager there was a screen as well.
On the other hand, both goals conceded were pretty bad. Neither one should have been that easy, and I think that it’s a combination of players losing individual duels and a lack of communication. On that note, I think that Anderson has been great overall, and has made a lot of big saves. Her PSxG +/-, or the difference between post-shot expected goals and actual goals conceded is +1.0, second best in the league behind Lorena. But she has also had some nervy moments playing the ball with her feet. I’m glad that she’s gotten the opportunity for the starting job, but it’s not going to be totally smooth sailing either.
Which brings me back to where I started. There have been good moments to build off of. There are also still holes in this team, and unsurprisingly, with a new back four, a new midfield, a new No 9, and a new coach, we’re not seeing everyone on the same page yet. I’m still not exactly sure how they want the team to play, but I think that there is starting to be a foundation to build from.
Midfield
The midfield has been the most confusing area for me, specifically, where is Katie Zelem? So far, it’s been Alanna Kennedy starting alongside Hodge, with Fuller playing above them. Just in general, it seems like a lot to ask two players who are new to the team to comprise the engine room, especially as Hodge has no professional experience and Kennedy has mostly been a centerback in career. And regarding that, I didn’t think that it was the wrong move to play her in midfield. She’s done it before, and especially with her height, she can cover a lot of ground. But I personally envisioned that as more of a defensive role, however Kennedy does lead all ACFC midfield starters with 36.5 Pass Attempts per 90. That’s not a great number, and it’s even worse that Hodge and Fuller are averaging even fewer Pass Attempts. Last year Zelem averaged 66.0 Pass Attempts per 90 for comparison. She also led Angel City with 4.11 Shot Creating Actions per 90 last year. In the two games so far this year, Kennedy has 1.0 SCAs per 90, while Hodge has 1.32. And maybe more than anything, it would just make so much sense to me for Kennedy to play as a Destroyer, and focused on winning the ball back, while Zelem would be the deep-lying playmaker. Their skill sets compliment each other so well. I don’t think that Hodge has been bad, but she also hasn’t shined for me, and there have been instances where I thought that her positioning was wrong. Maybe there has been some injury concerns that I’m unaware of, but Zelem was on the bench for both games, coming on for 16 minutes against the Wave, but not seeing the field against Portland.
The other really big factor is that I don’t think this midfield is working at all. I thought we were completely overrun by San Diego, and Portland were able to manufacture chances at will (21 Shots!). If Angel City had been dominant in both matches, but settled for 1-1 draws, I’d say okay. But the opposition has been able to take more chances, and better chances, in both games. We’ll see if the experiment continues against Seattle this week, but I think that strengthening the midfield play is going to strengthen the whole team, and to me, the best way to do that is to play Zelem.
One other factor that seemed odd to me was that Zelem wasn’t made an assistant captain. She was the captain at Manchester United for years, and has the reputation for being a good leader. Picking Angelina Anderson, a player who is five years younger and has played 106 fewer professional games, is surprising, and I think has to be considered at least a bit of a slight to Zelem. I also think after seeing how Henry was never properly utilized, it does make me nervous that we’re going to see a similar situation with another European world-class central midfielder. And I really hope that this isn’t some kind of “benching Zelem to send a message to the team,” type of situation. If she’s playing regularly, and in good form, I think that she has a good chance to make England’s Euro’s squad, and it woudn’t be fair to take that opportunity away from her.
Various Other Thoughts
The Thompson sisters seem to be enjoying the higher pressing in Angel City’s game plan. They are both in the top 3 ACFC players in Tackles + Interceptions (with Alanna Kennedy), and in Shot Creating Actions (with Claire Emslie). And unlike last year, when Alyssa was making so many tackles in the defensive third, this year it is primarily in the middle third.
Riley Tiernan (.4 xA), Julie Dufour (.3 xA), and MA Vignola (.2 xA) are all in the Top 5 xA on the team, but have a combined 0.0 xAG. So while we’d expect them to at least have 1 Assist between them, none of these passes have led to even a shot. Emslie also leads the team in Key Passes (4), and has .3 xAG, but no Assists. Clearly, that final piece in the Attacking Third isn’t in place, yet. Tiernan, especially, is only 12 for 35 in her passing (34.3%), which is the lowest completion rate on the team. No 9 is the hardest position to make passes from, but if she can improve that to even 50%, it will make Angel City a much more dangerous team.
I mentioned Angelina Anderson, already, but it’s worth reiterating that she’s been very good, so far. I don’t think that she was at fault for either goal. And of course, 2 games is a small sample size, but we’re already seeing the sweeper-keeper attributes that she brings. Last year, Haračić had .4 Defensive Actions Outside the Penalty Area per 90 (#OPA/90). This year, Anderson is at 2.5, ahead of her career average of 1.89. Angel City’s backline is so fast, but Anderson’s willingness to come out of goal allows them all to stay higher.
Recent signing Maira Niehues is intriguing. She’s a Brazilian U-20 player, but has played professionally for a while, including 3 years in Portugal with Sporting CP. Marc Parsons describes her as a box-to-box midfielder. I think that she will need time to adjust to the team, and the league, and the city. There is not a lot of information about her, and the Portuguese League is not considered one of the top leagues in Europe (Sporting CP did not make it to the group stage of the Champions League). So I’m imagining that she’s one for the future. But there is clearly a great tradition of Brazilian midfielders, and her status as a member of the U-20 National Team is encouraging.
Angel City’s next game is Sunday, March 30th at 5:00p at BMO, and on CBSSN, against the Seattle Reign. We’ll see Madison Curry back at BMO, as well as our interim manager Sam Laity taking on Laura Harvey, for whom he was an assistant for 6 years.