Targets From Relegated European Teams

As an exercise, I wanted to pick out one player from a relegated team in England, France, Spain, and Germany that I think would be a quality addition for a new team. Just because a team goes down, it doesn’t mean that every member of the squad isn’t at that top flight level, and consequently, I think that good players often get overlooked. I also view these as win-win-win deals. A relegated club is usually going to need to cut costs, so a transfer fee or shedding salary is a good thing. For the buying club, I think it’s often a chance at getting a bargain. And for the player, I think it has to be a huge morale boost to immediately get a new opportunity and go to a stronger team. I couldn’t necessarily find contract information on these players either, so if they are free agents, that’s even better for them, in my opinion.

And as I said, this is largely an exercise for myself, as well. In regards to European teams, I usually watch Champions League, so this was an opportunity for me to familiarize myself with some of the players and teams that are not as well known to me. Also, just to be clear, these are teams that don’t really show up on television in the US, so I haven’t ever seen these players play. I’m basing this purely off of statistics, which I suppose is also part of the exercise: just how much can we learn from research alone? I’m the first to say that you’ll always learn something more watching a player, but I think that statistics and research can actually paint a pretty good picture. I’d like to revisit this article in three years to see what actually ends up happening with the players on this list, and possibly make this an annual feature. All stats are from FBRef.

Ffion Morgan, Bristol City

Starting in the WSL, Bristol City had a rough season, winning only one game all year. Morgan, however, stands out in a number of ways. Primarily playing Right Midfield in a 5-4-1, Morgan was a factor in both offense and defense. She led Bristol in Progressive Passes Received, as well as Progressive Carries, Carries into the Final Third, and Carries into the Penalty Area, which all show me a player that is the primary outlet for her team. When Bristol wins the ball, getting the ball to Morgan is the best way to relieve pressure. In those Carry statistics, she ranks in the 85th, 78th, and 87th Percentile in the WSL. And considering that Bristol never had a lot of the ball (only 33.8% Possession on the season), I think that’s even more impressive.

Morgan only finished with 1 Goal and 2 Assists, but her underlying statistics look much better. For one thing, Bristol only recorded 20 Goals and 9 Assists, so Morgan was contributing a decent percentage of that. She only took 12 shots, but put 8 of them on target. She had 2.3 xA and 2.6 xAG, good for 66th and 73rd percentile in the WSL. I don’t think those numbers are bad, but again, we need to remember she is playing on a team that doesn’t have a lot of the ball. Also, those numbers are more than double any other player on Bristol’s squad. In addition, she led Bristol in Crosses, good for 82nd percentile in the WSL.

Morgan was second on the team in Shot Creating Actions (SCA) and first in Goal Creating Actions (GCA), but what really stands out in this regard is her defensive contributions. She’s in the 90th percentile in the WSL in SCAs from a Defensive Action, and 99th Percentile in GCAs from a defensive action (all were from interceptions). She was second on Bristol in Interceptions, which was actually good for 9th in the whole league in this category. This really caught my attention, as I think that it’s usually easier for central players to intercept the ball. It’s really going to take a lot for a winger to make the Top 10 in the league in this category.

Morgan is only 24, but has been a member of the Welsh National Team for seven years already with 18 caps. She has also earned her UEFA B Coaching License. I feel like she’s right at the point where she has substantial experience, but also still has a lot of potential. This was her first season in the top flight, but I think that she clearly belongs at this level. Becki Tweed is from Bristol, so maybe she has better scouting reports from people there, but Angel City don’t exactly have roster spots, and need a centerback more than a winger, so I don’t think that Morgan is a target for us this summer. I would say Seattle would be the best NWSL fit, as they already have a strong Welsh connection.

Abi Kim, Bordeaux

I’m picking Abi Kim as my player from Division 1 Féminine. She played primarily as a Right Wing for Bordeaux, this season finishing with 3 Goals and 2 Assists. She had an xG of 4.4, with 23 Shots and 10 On Target. I think that’s a pretty good accuracy rate. And her xG per Shot of .2 is very good, ranking in the 93rd Percentile in France amongst wingers and attacking midfielders. This is actually even better, as she tends to shoot from a further distance than most wingers. Her passing similarly stands out, as she led Bordeaux in xA (2.1) and was second in xAG (2.4). She was also first on the team in Crosses, Passes into the Penalty Area, and was second in Key Passes. I actually like the fact that she’s underperformed both her xG and xAG, as I always feel like some of that just comes down to luck, and that there will be positive regression to the mean. So I think that the best is yet to come, and that playing on a better team would lead to more goals and assists in the future. Even with a similar xG+xAG, 9 or 10 goal contributions seems very possible.

A few other categories that stand out are Take-Ons and Aerial Duels. Kim doesn’t attempt many Take-Ons, only ranking in the 54th Percentile, but her 56.9% Success Rate is in the 93rd Percentile. That’s exactly what I’d want from a winger; someone who doesn’t just run at defenders heedlessly, but picks her moments. She’s also in the 96th Percentile of Wingers and Attacking Midfielders in Aerial Duels Won, and listed at 5’8”, she probably has more height than the average winger.

Kim also has an interesting background. She went to Cal, making 80 appearances and scoring 18 Goals, and was captain her senior year. She represented the US at the U-18, U-20, and U-23 levels, and was drafted 26th overall by Orlando in the 2020 NWSL draft. Unfortunately that’s where things started going off track. The 2020 NWSL season was shutdown by the pandemic, just three days into her first training camp. She ended up going to Fiorentina in Italy for the season, but only played 236 minutes. She returned to Orlando in 2021 and played two seasons there, alongside Angel City players Sydney Leroux, Ali Riley, and Meggie Dougherty Howard. In those two seasons, though, she only got 17 games and 365 total minutes, before getting waived by Orlando. This past season at Bordeaux is the first time that she’s really been given meaningful playing time. She is also eligible to play for Ghana, and has apparently been approached by their national team. I think that she’s clearly a player that a lot of people saw potential in, and at 25, she still has time to realize that potential. Playing matches, and especially getting international experience, is going to help unlock her ability. Her underlying metrics all look to me like a player that is creating chances, but just hasn’t put everything together yet. And I take FBRef’s Player Comparison Tool with at least a grain of salt, maybe even an 1/8 of a tsp, but their list of players statistically similar to Kim includes Michelle Cooper, Maria Sanchez, Tyler Lussi, Scarlett Camberos, and Alyssa Thompson. At a minimum, that would suggest that she’s a starting caliber player for an NWSL team. With her college and prior NWSL experience, there wouldn’t be any surprises for her in the league’s style of play, and I think that she’s definitely someone that NWSL teams should be looking at, as well as other teams in Europe.

Kayla McKenna, Villareal

The Spanish season still has two more games left (why it goes on after the Champions League is beyond me), so Villareal may still escape, as they’re only two points from safety. If they do, it will be in no small part to to McKenna’s goals. She’s scored 11 times, which puts her in an 8th place tie amongst the top goalscorers in the league, and also has two assists. There might be some concern that she is overperforming, as her xG is only 7.1. Her shooting statistics also seem unsustainably good, as her 11 Goals came from only 37 shots, 18 of which were on target. However if we look at xG per shot, her score of .19 is right in line with other top goalscorers in La Liga Femenina. That’s the exact same rate as Sheila Guijarro and Alba Redondo, who both scored 13 Goals off 56 and 62 Shots respectively, and is kind of right in the middle of Non-Penalty xG per Shot rates for other double digit goal scorers in the league. So I think that we can say that McKenna gets into good scoring positions, and at a similar rate to other top strikers. Her accuracy might have been a little better than we can expect going forward, but with a small increase in shot volume, it’s reasonable to expect her to get into double digit scoring again. Also, from what I can see, Villareal changed their formation quite a bit, and McKenna played as both a lone striker in a 4-3-3 or 5-4-1, as well as part of a pair in a 4-4-2, and she has scored goals in both situations. And despite only being listed at 5’7”, she’s good in the air, ranking in the 84th percentile in La Liga Feminina amongst forwards for Aerial Duels Won.

There’s not a lot of other stats that stand out to me about McKenna; she really looks like a player that makes her living inside the penalty box, and unfortunately, she’s on a team that doesn’t do a good job of getting the ball there. Of the 16 teams in La Liga Femenina, Villareal are 15th in touches inside the Attacking Penalty Box, 14th in Total Possession, and 15th in Shot Creating Actions. It’s completely reasonable to me that McKenna would do even better on a team that could get her the ball more often. The low Shot Volume I mentioned before will almost certainly go up on almost any other team. This was also her first season in Spain, after coming from Rangers in Scotland. She also had a great record there, scoring 25 Goals in 40 Games, and helping Rangers to their first title. It actually makes McKenna’s scoring statistics for Villareal even more impressive to me, as I think that it’s a challenge coming to a new team, in a new league, and to me, Spain is at a higher level than Scotland. She still got to 11 Goals on a struggling team with those added challenges, so I think anyone that can put her in a good situation should feel confident that they’ll get goals in return.

McKenna also has connections to the NWSL. She went to college at Duke, before getting drafted 18th overall by Houston in 2019, but only played 53 minutes in 1 match for them. It looks like she suffered a knee injury, but all I could really find was that she missed the 2019 World Cup due to this injury. She is part of the Jamaica squad, with 10 caps so far, and she did play at the 2023 World Cup. To me, the Red Stars and Courage seem like good fits. Former Jamaica manager Lorne Donaldson is now the head coach in Chicago, plus McKenna was born in Skokie, Illinois. The Duke connection is part of the reason I mention North Carolina, but more so, because they seem like they’re really crying out for someone to bury all the chances they create. But really, any team that’s struggling with turning possession into goals should consider adding her. McKenna is the oldest player on my list at 27, and I think is best suited to a squad that can put her in the lineup right away.

Paula Flach, MSV Duisburg

So far, as it’s happened, I’ve picked players in more attacking positions, but Flach is very much a defender. It looks like she started the season at Centerback, before moving to Left Back about halfway through the season. But regardless of her spot, she was a tackling machine. In the Frauen-Bundesliga, Flach was tied for 9th place in Tackles (with 58), tied for 8th place in Tackles Won (with 41), and 5th place in Interceptions (with 46). She led her team in all of these categories, as well as Blocks and Clearances.

I feel like there is something of a caveat to all of this, which is that MSV Duisburg had a very rough season. This is true of all relegated teams, but they had 0 Wins and only 4 Points on the season. They only managed 37.2% Possession, they conceded over 18 Shots a Game on average, and opponents had more passes against them then any other team. In short, this was a defense that was constantly under siege, and based on pure volume, a defender is going to get a chance at a lot more Defensive Actions in these circumstances. Still, Flach outperformed everyone else on her team in just about every single defensive statistic, so I don’t think that we can just put her performances down to facing a high number of attacks.

The other thing that I liked about Flach is that as she played more frequently at Left Back, she did start contributing to the attack. She finished the season 5th on the team with 18 Shot Creating Actions, and 3rd on the team in Crosses with 46. She also was 2nd on the team in Key Passes (11), third in xA (.7), and actually led the team in xAG (1.7). None of these are particularly high (Flach is 51st percentile in xAG and Crosses compared to other Frauen-Bundesliga Fullbacks), but all of these categories increased once she began playing regularly at Left Back. And the other important factor here is that she only just turned 21. With another year of growth, and playing regularly at Left Back, I’d expect her to move into at least the top third of Fullbacks in these categories. And one last stat: she ranked in the 85th percentile in Long Passes Completed, and 82nd Percentile in Long Passes Attempted, leading MSV Duisburg outfield players in both categories. That kind of passing range is invaluable. I think that there are probably lots of teams that would want a young Left Back who is already strong defensively and getting better offensively. Ideally she will go to a team that can give her that continued development.

Conclusions

In my opinion, all of these players have already shown that they should be playing in one of the top leagues in the world. Most of them also still have some unlocked potential, and I think they could become even better. I don’t think that we’ll see any of them joining Angel City, but I’ll be interested to see what does happen, and I certainly wish them all good luck in whatever next season holds.

The next Angel City game is Away to Gotham on Saturday June 8th at 9:30a Pacific Time on CBS.