NWSL Trades for Expansion Draft Protection

I’ve been pretty surprised by the trades I’m seeing, in that it doesn’t seem like it’s taking a lot to get protection. I think my basis for this is what Chicago gave up to Angel City to gain protection two years ago, which I’ll get more into in another article. But I wanted to start by trying to figure out what Protection is worth in ‘23.

The best deal to begin with is the one between Bay FC and Louisville. Bay FC receives $235,000 in allocation money and the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Louisville receives the 15th pick and Expansion Draft Protection. There aren’t really any straight money-for-draft-pick deals to use as a comparison, so we’ll look to another deal to figure out draft pick value. On Feb. 1, Orlando traded Courtney Peterson and a 3rd round draft pick for $65,000 in Allocation Money, plus an additional $25,000 if certain performance criteria were met. In the season prior to this deal, Peterson played in 19 NWSL matches for Orlando, starting 9 of them. She finished the season with 2 starts, but hadn’t started in the previous 11, so I’m going to classify her as a squad player. The $25,000 additional money is definitely tied to Peterson. At almost this same time, Angel City traded Cari Rocarro to Chicago for $65,000, however she was definitely a starter, not a squad player. So I’m going to say that of the $65,000 that Orlando received from Houston, $25,000 was for Peterson and $40,000 was for the third round pick.

So back to the deal between Bay FC and Louisville. Louisville is jumping up 19 places, from the third round to the second. So if we say that a third rounder is worth $40,000, then I think that $40,000 is also a decent fee for upgrading a third round pick into the second round. The only other comparisons we can look at here are the deals that Angel City made to move from 5th overall to 1st overall to draft Alyssa Thompson, when they spent $450,000 plus a 2nd round pick, but I think that we can all agree that was special circumstances. And the 15th pick is a much less certain position. So, it’s murky, but $40,000 is the best number that I can come up with to monetize the change in draft position. That means that Louisville is paying $195,000 for Expansion Draft Protection. That feels fair to me. I think at least we can say a ball park of $180,000-$200,000. So let’s look at some of the other deals.

Bay FC receives the 8th pick of the 2024 draft. Orlando receives $50,000 of allocation money and Expansion Draft Protection. Using the metric from the first deal, that’s Orlando gaining $245,000 in value for the 8th pick. That feels pretty high, as 8th is not a time when teams are generally drafting star players. The 8th pick in the last five drafts has been Sydney Collins, Zsanett Kajen, Tara McKeown, Tziarra King, and Dorian Bailey. In recent years, we’ve seen Kirstie Mewis and Victoria Pickett both go for $200,000, so they expectation is their selection with the 8th pick needs to be a better player than that. I also think there is an increasing risk in trading for a draft pick, as there is no guarantee that the player you draft will sign for the team, e.g. Mia Fishel. So my final verdict here is that Bay overpaid. I understand that they like the idea of having two picks in the top 10 and feel it’s a good foundation moving forward, but I think they let Orlando talk them into a lopsided deal.

Next deal is Bay FC receives Alex Loera while KC receives $175,00 allocation money and Expansion Draft Protection. Using my valuation, that’s $370,000 value for Loera. Soccerdonna has Alex Loera valued at €40,000, but I don’t put too much stock in their valuation. Still, it gives us a jumping off point. Loera was a good player last year for KC, but not, I think a key player. She was 14th in NWSL minutes at KC (10 matches, 9 starts), but actually led the team with 4 assists. Part of that lack of minutes was due to injury. Compared to other NWSL midfielders, though, Loera is in the 80th percentile or higher (often in the 90’s) in most passing statistics, and kind of middle of the pack in defensive ones. I’d say that she’s a clear starter at KC when healthy. Now none of this takes into account what Loera means to Bay FC off the field, which they cited as part of the appeal to make her their first signing. But could they have gotten a comparable midfielder for Loera for even just the $175,000 in allocation money? If it was Bay that initiated this deal, which I assume it was, then I think that KC leveraged that interest against them.

Now is Utah doing any better? Their first deal: Utah receives Mikayla Cluff and the 26th pick in the 2024 draft. Orlando receives $90,000 in allocation money and Expansion Draft Protection. The 26th pick is late in Round 2, so going off $40,000 for a 3rd Round pick, I’m going to value this one at $50,000. That puts us at $235,000 in value spent on Cluff. She was 6th in minutes for Orlando, and played in all 22 games for them with 17 starts. She led the Orlando midfield in most passing stats. So she’s a bonafide starter and also brings off-field value. She’s a Utah native and played for BYU. She also gets great defensive marks compared to other NWSL midifleders. Again, she doesn’t jump out to me as a cornerstone player, but I get why Utah wants her, and I feel like this deal is more in line with other deals.

Next, Utah receives Kaleigh Riehl. San Diego receives $60,000 allocation and Expansion Draft Protection. Much more straightforward deal. $255,000 value for Riehl. I tend to think of Sheridan and Girma as the leaders of San Diego’s defense, but Riehl certainly played a part. 5th in minutes and 6th in Tackles+Interceptions for the Wave. Still she was clearly the #2 Centerback behind Girma, and I also feel like any defender is going to look better playing next to Girma. With each team only protecting nine players, it seems likely that Utah could have a found a similar centerback, i.e. one who is starting caliber, but is the #2 CB on their team. And it would have saved Utah $60,000.

And finally, Utah receives Emily Gray and Frankie Tagliaferri. North Carolina receives $30,000 in allocation money and Expansion Draft Protection. So, $225,000 for two players. This deal maybe surprises me the most. Gray missed all of last season with an ACL injury. In the previous season, she only had 175 minutes over three matches. Still, North Carolina drafted her third overall, ahead of Savannah Demelo, Mia Fishel, and Diana Ordonez. She was a star at Virginia Tech, but hasn’t yet shown that at the NWSL level. Tagliaferri only had 264 minutes spread over eight matches with three starts. If Gray is healthy and becomes a star, Utah will view this deal as a win, but it’s a huge gamble. Again, couldn’t they have found someone who fits that category of “young player with untapped potential” in the expansion draft? Would North Carolina even have protected either of these players? It’s pretty hard for me to see this deal as anything but a big win for North Carolina.

That completes the trades for protection at the time of writing. In general, I thought that both Bay FC and Utah overpaid, but that, of course, suggests that I’m wrong, that the market has changed, and that’s what teams are offering. Even if that is the case, though, Bay FC and Utah don’t HAVE to give any team protection. It should be a offer-you-can’t-refuse type deal, and I don’t see that at all. In general, it seems like Protection plus $100,000, give or take, can get you a starting caliber NWSL player, but not a star. I’ll do a followup after the Expansion Draft to see exactly what caliber of player Bay and Utah are able to get. There will also be a companion article looking at the deals in ‘21, as a point of comparison.