NWSL Draft 2024: Historical Analysis of Rounds 3 and 4
So last night I attended the 2023 NWSL Draft in Anaheim. It was my first time at something like this in person, and it was a great experience, both fascinating and informative. Plus, the NWSL is getting pretty good at putting on a show. Naturally, the ACFC fanbase was fantastic, but unfortunately, I also arrived late, due to Friday LA rush hour, so I missed seeing the Washington fans have a collective stroke over trading away Staab and Sanchez.
In this article, I’m not going to talk about the players that Angel City selected, as I am definitely not an expert on college soccer. I will leave an analysis of these players to others. Instead, I would like to try to figure out what the general hit rate is in the 3rd and 4th rounds to try to provide a baseline of what Angel City fans should expect. I’ll go back to the 2017 draft, and look at how many total NWSL league games and what percentage of possible games played were played by the draft class of each year from the third and fourth rounds. I’m picking 2017 mostly as a year far enough back that any players that were going to develop into consistent professionals would have done so. There is also some discrepancy in the picks as the league has grown (i.e. in 2017 Round 4 was picks 31-40, this year it was picks 43-56). I’m going to say that that is balanced out by teams budgets growing during this time frame, and that scouting should be more developed as a result. I also think that the talent pool has grown during this time, though that’s somewhat subjective. I’ll also note if a player has ever won any awards. And I’ll finish with 2022, because I think that one year is often not enough time for a rookie to make an impact, thus ruling out 2023. Anyway, not exact by any means, but hopefully it gives us an idea of how players in the third and fourth round generally perform.
3rd Round
2017 3rd Round: 10 players per round, and the first pick of the third round is Tyler Lussi, a name Angel City fans will recognize. New ACFC acquisition Meggie Dougherty Howard also went in this round in 2017. In total, these ten players have played 513 total games. Two of them never played NWSL soccer at all, while the clear standout from this round is Kailen Sheridan, who accounts for 121 of those games and has made NWSL Best XI in 2021 and 2022, while also receiving the NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year in 2022. In total, the players in this round average 51.3 games played out of a possible 140, or 36.6%.
2018 3rd Round: Total games was 170, led by Bella Bixby and Veronica Latsko two players who both scored heartbreaking goals against Angel City last year (but Latsko more so). Still, this is a drop from 2017 with an average of 17 games per draft pick out of a possible 116. Or only 14.7%. 5 of the draft picks never played an NWSL match.
2019 3rd Round: 146 Total Games, or 14.6 out of 92 possible games on average. 15.9%. 2 players never played in the NWSL.
2020 3rd Round: 152 Total Games, 15.2 out of 68 possible. 22.4%. Only one player from this round never played in the NWSL.
2021 3rd Round: 156 Total Games, 15.6 out of 68 possible for 22.9%. 3 players never played in the NWSL.
And finally, the 2022 3rd Round: 128 Total games played by this class, and this is the first draft with 12 players per round. For context, in this round, Angel City drafted Hope Breslin and Lily Nabet. The class as a whole played in 24.2% possible games. 5 players have never played an NWSL match.
4th Round
2017 4th Round: These players played 177 total games, with two of them never playing in the NWSL. The standout is Kristen McNabb, who has played 109 games between the Reign and the Wave. The average for this round is 17.7 games played per draft pick out of a possible 140 for 12.6%. So, it’s possible to still find a good player, but there is a real dropoff between rounds here. It’s also worth noting that Kelli Hubly went undrafted this year, but has gone on to play 77 times for the Thorns, earning a spot on the 2022 2nd XI.
2018 4th Round: Total games for this group was 142, and actually led by Ryan Williams, who was the last overall pick in the draft, but played in all 22 games for the Courage last year, and 62 total so far. The average is 14.2 games per pick or 12.2% of possible matches. Again, 5 never played in the NWSL.
2019 4th Round: 98 Total, but that’s almost all Marissa Viggiano. 9.8 out of 92 possible. 10.7%. 4 players never played an NWSL match. Interestingly, Bethany Balcer went undrafted, but was Rookie of the Year, and voted onto the NWSL Second XI in 2019.
2020 4th Round: 87 Total Games, or 8.7 out of 68 possible is 12.8%. 4 players never played in the NWSL. Maddison Hammond went undrafted this year.
2021 4th Round: 105 Total Games, and the standout here is Alex Loera, the first ever player signed for Bay FC. Not bad to go from 4th round pick to cornerstone of a franchise. As a class, they registered 15.4% possible games played. 3 players never played in the NWSL.
2022 4th Round: 107 Total games. Angel City drafted Miri Taylor in this round. In total, this class registered 8.92 of 44 possible games for 20.3%. Six players never played an NWSL match.
% of Possible Games Played per Draft Class
Takeaways
So we went through a ton of numbers there, but what does it all mean? There are a number of factors that impact this data. First, outside of the Third Round in 2017, this is generally an upward trajectory. I think the Third Round in 2017 is heavily skewed by the presence of Kailen Sheridan, who has actually played more minutes than any other player in that draft. Also, we see the development of a number of players in this draft. For instance, Tyler Lussi never played more than 400 minutes before she came to Angel City in 2022. But this timeline is long enough that players who were on the fringe of squads have now become contributors, thus creating an outsized number of players. The pandemic also really throws a wrench into all of this. Without a proper season in 2020, I think that it was harder for players who weren’t already somewhat established to gain a foothold. I also think that the CBA plays a role in this. The current league minimum of around $37,900 is not enough to live on, in my opinion, especially in a city like LA. However, it is a big step up from the previous minimum of $22,000 in 2021. Most players in the 3rd and 4th rounds of the draft are going to be fringe players getting the league minimum to start. They also probably have completed their college degrees, as most players only seem to leave college early if they expect to go at the top of the draft. So there are almost definitely more lucrative jobs available to them than professional soccer player. And again, during the pandemic when there weren’t ticket sales, and teams were extra worried about costs, it makes sense to me that players who haven’t broken into a squad would look elsewhere for work. As the league minimum goes up, I’d expect to see more late round players have careers in the NWSL.
Also, as I stated earlier, it’s important to note that in 2022, the actual picks in Rounds 3 and 4 are later than previous years, due to 12 teams drafting instead of 10. Yet, even though 2022’s picks are later, they are performing better, and performing immediately. Unlike the 2017 and 2018 players that spent a few years making the odd substitute appearance, before finally becoming an integral member of the squad, the 2022 players were stepping in right away. Again, having 12 teams instead of 10 helps a lot with this, but I think that it’s still an indicator that modern college players are better suited for a professional career than at any point in the past.
The general trends that I saw looking at the 3rd and 4th rounds were that the highest level of success was enjoyed by goalkeepers, with Kailen Sheridan and Bella Bixby leading the way. And although I didn’t include 2023 in this analysis, Angelina Anderson, our third round pick from that year fits into this trend as well. It was also kind of heartbreaking to see the number of players drafted that never played an NWSL game at all, or played just a handful and left professional soccer. I think it’s a reminder to us of just how much these players have overcome each time they step onto the pitch. But to get back to my expectations, I think that an optimistic projection (albeit only slightly optimistic) for Felicia Knox, Jessica Garziano, and Madison Curry is along the lines of similar late round picks (or undrafted) Angel City players Lussi, Hammond, and Nabet. We shouldn’t expect them to step in immediately this season. Each of them playing in around 20% of the matches, which is basically four games this year, would be around league average and should be considered good value for those picks. But in another year or two, we may see them grow into key players. And who knows? There are always some stars just waiting to be discovered, and in particular, I think that scouting playmakers has been a weak spot in the US. But for now, let’s not put undue pressure on Knox, Garziano, and Curry. Let’s just welcome them to the league and to Angel City and give them our support and we’ll see what happens.