NWSL 2024 Predictions
As an exercise, I wanted to try making preseason predictions about how the standings will look at the end of the season. Obviously, there’s a lot that can happen between now and then, like injuries, incoming players, outgoing players, new coaches. There’s also the matter of the effect of the Olympics, as well as the new CONCACAF W Champions Cup. At this point, we still don’t know which three teams will be representing the NWSL in the new continental competition, but the addition of extra games and travel will definitely make things more challenging at the top of the table. So with that caveat, here are my predictions, starting at the bottom and working up. All stats are from FBRef and Opta.
14) Houston Dash - Last year Houston were second-to-last in the league, and might actually consider themselves lucky. They had the second highest xG Allowed with 32.0, but the second lowest Post Shot Expect Goals Allowed with 23.1. Teams were incredibly wasteful against them last year, and I’d expect some regression to the mean this year. They did not have any particularly notable signings, while it seems like most of the rest of the league has been advancing. Standing still means you get left behind.
13) Utah Royals - My impression with Utah is that they’re building for the long term. They drafted five players in the first two rounds. They have a coach in Amy Rodriguez who knows the NWSL. I think this season they’re trying to establish a strong foundation. I don’t think they’ll be easy to play against, but I also don’t think they’ll win many games.
12) Racing Louisville - Last year Louisville finished 9th, and had the 10th worst xG Differential. They lost Wang Shuang to Tottenham, but added Taylor Flint (formerly Kornieck). I think that Flint and Demelo are going to be great compliments to each other, and create a really dynamic midfield. Katie Lund is also going to keep them in games (last year she had the third best PSxG+/-). But I don’t see the rest of the team rising to the level of playoff caliber. At least they have the best kits in the league.
11) Chicago Red Stars - Chicago were terrible last year. Their xG differential was over twice as bad as the second-to-worst Dash (-20.4 to -8.3). But they have a lot of cause for optimism. They have a new owner serious about investing in the club. They have a new coach in Lorne Donaldson who helped Jamaica on an incredible run in the last World Cup. He also has extensive youth experience, with his elite youth club Real Colorado, where we played a part in developing Jaelin Howell, Janine Beckie, Sophia Smith, and Mal Swanson. Swanson, of course, is the biggest reason to expect a turnaround. She can be an MVP level player, and she just signed a record contract to stay in Chicago. They also got Sam Staab, who is one of the best Center Backs in the league at moving the ball upfield. Still, even if they take that -20.4 xG Differntial to 0, they’ll still be out of a playoff spot. There is real cause for optimism in Chicago, but there can only be so many gains made in one year (I’m willfully ignoring 2023 Gotham as I make that statement).
10) Washington Spirit - Washington is another team that I think is putting building blocks in place, but will not be a contender this season. As I just mentioned, they parted ways with Sam Staab, as well as Ashley Sanchez, at the draft in exchanges for picks and Allocation Money. They’re also bringing in Jonatan Giraldez Costas from Barca, one of the most decorated managers on the planet. But he doesn’t arrive until the summer, after the European season is finished. Any team that has Trinity Rodman and Ashley Hatch is going to be dangerous, but until Giraldez arrives I think they’ll be stuck in a little bit of limbo. Last year the Spirit massively underperformed their xG, and normally I’d expect a positive regression to the mean for them. But having parted with Staab and Sanchez, two of their key players, I don’t think that we can meaningfully expect any correlation between last year’s stats and this year’s. So for this season, it’s just going to be about figuring out their path moving forward.
9) Seattle Reign - My final team not to make the playoffs is the one that knocked out Angel City last year. The Reign have been one of the dominant teams in the NWSL, but they’ve lost more than the OL in their name. Gone from last year’s roster is Rose Lavelle, Emily Sonnett and Megan Rapinoe. Lavelle looked like their best player in the final and Sonnett had the second most minutes played. For Rapinoe, I hear the narrative that she was winding down, she wasn’t a key player anymore, etc. However, Opta has a stat called Attack Contribution that adds Non-Penalty Shots with Open Play Chances Created on a Per 90 basis, and Rapinoe ranked 4th in the league, with a 5.26, behind only Lynn Williams, Morgan Weaver, and Sophia Smith. So yes, she only played about 1,000 minutes last year, but she was still a contributor. She actually led the Reign in Goals + Assists. They did bring in Ji So-Yun and Angharad James, but I just don’t think you can replace what Rapinoe, Lavelle, and Sonnet contributed. They still have some good players, and a good coach, but I think that they’re falling just short this year.
8) San Diego Wave - Playoffs! The first playoff spot in my predictions goes to San Diego Wave. One year after winning the Shield, I have them just barely sneaking in. As I said before, I think that the Wave were lucky last year. They have a very solid defense, but I think that rely too much on Alex Morgan and Jaedyn Shaw creating something out of nothing. Last year they were second in goals scored, but their underlying metrics were only mediocre. Also, I think that they lost an important piece in Taylor Flint. They haven’t really made too many big name signings this winter, but hearing the news today that the club is being sold, this makes a little bit more sense (also, by the way, getting $113M for an initial $2M investment in only a few years isn’t shabby). I think that they still have enough talent, plus a top manager, and based on the Gold Cup, Shaw might explode into a superstar this season. But in terms of the entire club, I see them standing still, not ascending.
7) Bay FC - Bay has assembled an impressive amount of talent, and on paper they look really good. Probably better than 7th. But football isn’t played on paper, after all, and I think that Bay is going to experience a lot of the challenges that Angel City had in it’s first season. Namely, getting everybody onto the same page. I expect by the end of the season they will be a much more dangerous team, but in the first few months, there are going to be some dropped points as the players get to know each other. It also hurts that they will be without world record transfer Rachael Kundananji for the foreseeable future, as she was hurt on international duty with Zambia.
6) Orlando Pride - Speaking of Zambian players joining for record amounts of money, we come to Orlando in 6th. They traded their co-leading scorer Messiah Bright to Angel City, but then went out and made the second highest transfer ever for Barbra Banda. Marta is still creating at a high level, and Adriana should be even better this season, after having a full year to adapt to the NWSL. Orlando was 7th in the table last year, missing out on the playoffs due to goal differential. Their position this year is probably going to depend a lot on how Banda settles in, but even if she’s not spectacular, I think that Orlando improve and make the playoffs.
5) North Carolina Courage - North Carolina is a bit of a difficult one for me. I never thought they looked particularly good, but they also never looked particularly bad. Losing Kerolin to an ACL tear was catastrophic for them at the end of last season. They replaced her with Ashley Sanchez, which is a really good move. And if they get Kerolin back by the end of the season, they could make some noise in the playoffs. But I see them as a good team that didn’t really improve, while all the teams above them did.
4) Angel City FC - I’ve already written extensively about Angel City’s offseason, but I think the major points are that we have more depth at every position then we’ve ever had, Becki Tweed will be in charge from the start of the season, and we finally have a legitimate No 9 in Messiah Bright (and maybe Casey Phair as well). Granted, not the No 9 I wanted, but I think that the whole offense will click a lot more now that we have a proper striker. I don’t see us as championship caliber yet, but finishing top 4 and hosting (and hopefully winning) a playoff game would be a big step.
3) Kansas City Current - Last year the Current finished 11th, so I’m predicting a pretty big jump. The thing is, in 2022 they finished 5th in the regular season and made it to the Championship game, and then they went out and signed the best free agent on the market in Debinha. At the start of 2023, I thought they’d be back in the final game, and maybe winning it this time. Obviously that didn’t work out. My point, though, is that they do already have a lot of talented players on the roster. In hiring Vlatko Andanovski, the have a coach that has won two NWSL titles already, and while he never seemed to figure out how to get the USWNT clicking, he should feel more at home at club level, and specifically in Kansas City. He’s spoken about how 2023 was a bad year, but he wants to put it behind him, which is what appealed to him about this job, as they all pretty much felt the same way. Incidentally, he hired former Angel City manager Freya Coombe as an assistant, and I’m sure that she also has similar feelings about 2023. I think that mindset of turning a new page is already an important step in the whole club pulling in the same direction. They also have a shiny new stadium to open up and I think that’s going to add a lot of extra excitement to this season. Also, going back to last year, their stats weren’t terrible. They were 11th in Goals Allowed, but actually only 8th in xG Allowed. They also made a run in the Champions Cup, reaching the semifinals, so even last year, they could sometimes string some wins together. They have most of the pieces already, they just need to get them in place.
2) Portland Thorns - Last year Portland was statistically the best team in my opinion, and they were unlucky not to win any trophies at all. They already have, by far, the strongest offense, and the best player in the league in Sophia Smith. She won the Golden Boot despite playing about 500 minutes less than any of her rivals. And then they went and added Jessie Fleming who I think is going to absolutely thrive in this team. She has the vision and the passing range, she can be a true midfield maestro, and in Portland she has any number of talented attackers to feed. I’d also expect to see continued growth from Morgan Weaver and Olivia Moultrie, and maybe even more from Sam Coffey (despite the fact that she was excellent last year). Yes, losing Crystal Dunn, especially, was a blow, but I think that Fleming is a significant enough addition that Portland will actually be stronger this year.
1) Gotham FC - Speaking of Crystal Dunn, signing her would have made a good offseason for any team. Signing Dunn and Tierna Davidson would have been a great offseason. But signing Dunn, Davidson, Sonnett, and Lavelle is an absolutely ridiculous free agent haul. Plus, they get a full season with Esther. And Jenna Nighswonger looked sensational in the Gold Cup, and should even improve on last season’s Rookie of the Year campaign. They’re the defending champs, and just about half their starters weren’t even on the team a year ago. Juan Carlos Amoros will have his work cut out for him to find the necessary balance, but he did just successfully navigate Gotham through a tricky playoff run, so I’m not going to second guess him. But seriously, right now, before any games are played, it’s impossible to pick anybody but Gotham in the top spot. They’re the frontrunner we deserve, but not the frontrunner we need right now. The night is darkest before a Sol Rosa dawn.