Angel City 2024 Production Replacement

Camberos, McCaskill, and Weatherholt, played a combined 4.226 minutes, or 19.4% of the available minutes in the season. They also contributed 5 goals (17.2% of ACFC’s goals) and 7 assists (29.2% of assists). More importantly, they combined for an Expected Goals plus Assisted Goals per 90 (xG+xAG/90) of .91. That’s a big chunk of minutes and just about a goal per game that’s left the club, so who’s going to replace that production?

Starting in the midfield, I’m not too concerned about the loss of Weatherholt’s minutes. Having a full season of Henry (she’s coming back, right?) will eat up the lion’s share of these minutes. Once Henry was available last year, we saw a lot less of Weatherholt, so I think that transition already started. I also think that Hammond grew into the CM role last season, and should continue to grow. They are at the top of my CM depth chart. Probably a lot of people are expecting to see Rocky Rodriguez take over a starting role, but I think that it will be Hammond. She has a better passing range (65.3% vs 60.6% completion rate in favor of Hammond on long passes), and while I might give the edge to Rodriguez defensively, I think that Hammond more than holds her own in this area. All the same, I think that there will be plenty of minutes for both. Meggie Dougherty Howard should be able to fill in as needed, and with luck we’ll see Knox and/or Garziano make the jump to the professional level. Weatherholt also contributed .6 Expected Assists (xA) for the season, while Henry alone had .4 xA in less than a quarter of the minutes. So if Henry comes back, we should be just fine, and actually see more production. If Henry comes back being the big caveat. I also think that Rodriguez is stronger defensively than Weatherholt, so whoever is playing these minutes, should lead to either more goals created, or fewer goals conceded. If Henry doesn’t come back, though… I don’t even want to imagine it.

Attacking midfielder is trickier. McCaskill was a key player, albeit one that I thought should have provided more. Angel City didn’t specifically address a replacement, but I think that there are options from last season’s team that could be great in this role. I’d like to see Endo as a #10, as I think her control in tight spaces and ability to hold onto the ball are both important assets for the role. I also think that she would benefit from having other players close by for more one-two passes. I’d also like to see Tweed find a way to get Endo, Alyssa Thompson, and Emslie on the pitch at the same time, and this might be the best way to do it. Another option is Leroux, who I think is as good with a pass as she is with a shot. With the expectation that Bright will occupy the opposition centerbacks, that should create a pocket of space that I think Leroux can really exploit. I actually think this is a much better position for her than leading the line. And finally, I’d love to se Le Bihan get a chance in the role. She finished second in the league last year in shot-creating-actions-per-90 and first in Expected Assists per 90 (xA/90) and Expected Assisted Goals per 90 (xAG/90). Again, that’s in the entire league, and that was usually as a #9 or deeper in the midfield, as McCaskill had a lock on the #10 role. I think that Le Bihan could thrive here. Last year, Le Bihan and Leroux led all players on Angel City in Non-Penalty Expected Goals plus Expected Assisted Goals per 90 (npxG+xAG/90) with .59 and .56 (minimum of 500 minutes). In comparison McCaskill had .4 and Endo was just behind her at .39. Le Bihan’s additional .19 npxG+xAG/90 would translate to almost four additional goal contributions if she played the same minutes as McCaskill. All three should play more this year, barring injuries, so these stats make me believe that not only can these players replace McCaskill’s production, they can actually surpass it. There’s also the possibility that Garziano or Knox could get a look here, as they both set school records for assists. I hope that we’ll see a number of these players get a look, and that one of them will make that role her own.

Replacing Camberos’ minutes should also not be a problem. She already seemed to be behind Endo, Emslie, and Alyssa on the winger depth chart, and I think only got the playing time that she did because of absences for the World Cup. Granted, there will also be absences this year due to the Olympics. Alyssa will almost certainly be in that tournament, and while Japan hasn’t yet qualified, they are in good position to do so, and you’d expect Endo to be on that team. Team GB did not qualify, so no concern about losing Emslie. And yes, the NWSL will take a break from league play during the Olympics, but as we saw last year, it’s hard for players to return to a full workload after a tournament like that. Even so, I’d expect to see more minutes for Alyssa and Endo this year. Leroux can also play wide, of course, though I don’t see her as an out-and-out winger. And maybe, just maybe, we’ll see Christen Press back at some point this season. The more realistic option as a back-up winger is Jasmine Spencer. With the addition of Gisele Thompson and Merritt Mathias coming back from injury, we might actually have enough depth at fullback, and Spencer won’t have to fill in at that position anymore. Again, there are options at wing to replace Cambreros’ 910 minutes.

In terms of her production, I also don’t think that will be a problem. Camberos had 1 goal and 3 assists last year, an xG of 2.5 and an xA of 1.5. The addition of Bright alone should add enough scoring punch. Her 6 goals last year were better than any Angel City player, and equal to Katie Johnson, Leroux, and Le Bihan combined. And as I’ve stated before, I think that just her presence on the field will open up opportunities for other attackers. Camberos was also 9th in Shot Creating Actions and Shot Creating Actions per 90 (SCA and SCA/90) on Angel City, although 4th in Goal Creating Actions and Goal Creating Action per 90 (GCA and GCA/90). So no doubt, Camberos played a role in Angel City’s attack last year, but I think that the numbers show that there is still plenty of talent to make that up. And I think that more of those Shot Creating Actions from other players will translate into goals this year, with a more clinical #9 in Bright.

So across the board, I’m feeling pretty optimistic here. I think that this team is better than last year’s team, and that the replacements and new players are going to outperform the players that we lost. The big problem is that the rest of the league is not static. Portland still look really good, and if they get a full season out of Sophia Smith, hands down the best player in the league last year, plus see Weaver and Moultrie continue growing into stars, and see Fleming pulling the strings the way we expect her to, they’ll be tough to beat. Gotham signed the greatest collection of free agents ever, and will also get a full season from Esther. The idea of a Demelo/Flint central midfield in Louisville sounds like it could be devastating to me. Chicago will not be nearly as bad as last year (even though they took four points off us, despite being terrible), and KC definitely has the pieces, they just need to put them together. Plus Bay FC and Utah don’t exactly look like threadbare expansion rosters. They came to play, right off the bat. I think that Angel City will be better than last year, but the whole league is going to be better. The eternal question is, can we be be the best?