ACFC Protected IX Part II
Picking up from my last post, I’ll be discussing which ACFC midfielders and attackers I would protect in the upcoming NWSL Expansion Draft. All stats from FBref.
MID Amandine Henry - I’ve been a huge fan of Henry’s for a while. Her goal against Barca in the 2022 Champion’s League Final is, I think, the perfect midfielder’s solo goal. The tackle, the touch to simultaneously move the ball away from the defender and set up the shot, the vision, the power and accuracy of the shot. And all on one of the biggest possible stages. It’s the kind of goal that I would dream about when I was a kid. Angel City signed her for three years, so I think this is a given that she’s protected, but I don’t want to base this just on reputation. Let’s look at how she’s done with ACFC. All stats here are per 90 min, as she only played 317 minutes for us, with only four starts.
In the small amount of time that she’s had here, Henry has led Angel City in progressive passes, interceptions, percentage of aerial duels won, and tackles won. So, again, we have the small sample size caveat, but since she was a world class player at Lyon, I feel comfortable saying that this isn’t a fluke. I also expect even more next year. I’m reminded of when Beckham joined the Galaxy. It took a little bit of time for the other players to make runs, or expect a pass because they hadn’t ever had someone that could find them in that situation. I think that the same will happen with Henry, and that her influence will grow as her teammates have a better idea what to expect. I’m just sad that we never got to see a midfield with Henry and Ertz together. That could have been spectacular.
MID/FWD Jun Endo - Endo is a tough one to analyze. I think that she’s the most technically gifted player in the squad. When she gets a look at goal, she’s amongst the most ruthless, finishing fifth in the NWSL in goals per shot. But I, at least, wanted to see a higher return than 3g-2a. Especially when I see her play with Japan, there’s a real sense that we’re not seeing the best of Endo at ACFC yet. The World Cup (plus some injuries) also seemed to impact Endo with only 910 minutes played and only 10 starts. Especially post World Cup, it seems like she was mostly coming off the bench.
When we compare her to other wingers and attacking midfielders in the top nine leagues, the categories that jump out at me are progressive passes (93rd percentile) passes into the final third (93rd percentile) shot creation from defensive actions (97th percentile) and touches in the defensive third (99th percentile). It’s also worth noting that her successful take-on percentage is in the 90th percentile, so yes, she is amongst the best at beating people. But the other four categories stand out to me less because of Endo, and more because they highlight how differently she plays from other wingers. Most wingers don’t have a lot of progressive passes because they are the highest ones up the pitch. Same idea with passes into the final third. Shot creation from defensive actions highlights her pressing (tied for second on the team for tackles won in the final third). That touches in the defensive third stat is really scary to me, and yes I know that she spent some time as fullback last season, which skews the results somewhat. Still, playing that deep on defense I think keeps her from getting into the spots on the field where she can be the most dangerous. In the end, I think that she’s a top talent, but Becki Tweed needs to find a way to play to her strengths next year. I would be interested to see her in the No 10 role, or possibly in a change of formation to a 3-4-3 (like Japan plays) or a 4-4-2. I think that having a player in front of her, that can create pockets of space for her to exploit would be beneficial. But the No 10 is the most intriguing option to me. I know she’s always played out wide, but her control in tight spaces, plus having players around her for more one-two passes could unlock her potential.
FWD Alyssa Thompson - So this is a no brainer. She’s last year’s number one draft pick, nominated for rookie of the year, youngest US player at the World Cup. Angel City didn’t give up $400k for the right to draft her just so that Bay FC can take her a year later. She’s going to be protected.
Still, I was pretty surprised when I dug into her stats. She was 10th on the team in minutes, with only thirteen starts. Yet she outperformed her xG by 1.3 (tied for the team lead), shared the team lead in goals with McCaskill with 4, and first in tackles in the attacking third (50% more than any other ACFC player). But the two categories that really floored me were progressive carries and goal creating actions. Thompson led the team in progressive carries, and carries into the penalty area, and was second in carries into the final third behind McCaskill. And these are totals for the season. She played 36% fewer minutes, or a total of 700 fewer minutes, than McCaskill, yet was only seven carries behind, and leading the other categories!
Goal Creating Actions (GCA) is even more impressive. FBref defines a GCA as the two offensive actions leading directly to a goal. Thompson leads the team with 14, twice as many as Emslie in second place with seven. GCA/90 is also double anybody else. But what really strikes me is that she earned her 14 GCA with 7 live passes, three take-ons, and four times getting fouled. So it’s not really just one thing that’s generating offense.
Comparing her to other wingers across leagues, she still stands out. 90th percentile in progressive carries and 99th percentile in GCA. As a point of reference, Sophia Smith led the league with 17GCA to Thompson’s 14 in second place.
Obviously there were adjustments to playing in this league, and I have to imagine it was a tough year with Freya’s firing and the disappointments of the World Cup. But I think that Thompson had an even better year than I realized and should be poised to expand on it next year. I would, however, like to see her playing higher up the pitch. There’s no reason for her to be back on defense, and I think that keeping her higher up the pitch will discourage opposing teams from sending numbers forward.
MID/FWD Clarisse Le Bihan - I’m guessing this is my most surprising pick. I was surprised! She was not initially in my IX when I first drew this up. In fact, she only played 681 minutes over 16 matches, with only seven starts, good for 16th. So what changed my mind? Well, so the obvious one is that she still finished tied for 4th in G+A, with 5, 1G+4A. Okay, but then you look at them, and the goal was kind of lucky with the keeper way out of the net, 3 assists were from dead balls, and one she clearly knew nothing about, but it came off her, right to Spencer, who buried it. So maybe a little lucky all around? Well, her expected assisted goals (xAG) is actually 3.0, so 4 assists doesn’t sound that lucky, and is actually good enough for third on the team. But is this all about her dead ball delivery? Which can’t be discounted, of course, but there is more to soccer than set pieces.
When we look at her shot creating actions (SCA) she’s third on the team overall, but first on the team in SCA/90 for players who have played more than 90 total minutes with 5.95 SCA/90. Actually, compared to the whole league, Le Bihan’s 5.95 is good for second place between Sofia Smith and Megan Rapinoe. She’s also first in the league in xA/90, xAG/90, and A/90. So, at some point we can’t really call this a coincidence, right? Well just a few more stats, third on the team in key passes, which again is especially impressive from the player with only the 16th most minutes. And her +3.3 leads Angel City in xG+- (subtracting the xG against from ACFC’s xG when she is on the pitch).
So obviously the coaching staff doesn’t see her as a starter right now, but I think that her ceiling has to be viewed as much higher than most players. Maybe if we signed a dominant No 9 (I hear Sam Kerr and Ada Hegerberg are free agents in the summer), those shot creations could turn into a boatload of assists.
FWD Claire Emslie - I think that Emslie is probably the best soccer player at Angel City behind Henry. And I don’t necessarily mean skill wise, though I think that she is quite skilled, but in terms of how she reads the game, the runs she makes, the decisions she makes, etc. But as always, I wanted to dig a little deeper and not take it as a given that what I see sitting in the stands is the whole picture.
So for starters, her 8 goal contributions (3G+5A) led the team, and her five assists were tied for 2nd in the NWSL. She was 2nd in xG, 2nd in xAG, and 2nd in progressive carries on the team. 1st in Key Passes and 1st in crosses by a huge margin. In fact, those 39 key passes were good for 4th in the league. She also finished first in the league in crosses, and second in completed crosses into the penalty area, behind Sofia Huerta. When we compare across leagues, we find that Emslie is in the 95th percentile of all wingers for crosses. Again, probably someone who would benefit from a dominant No 9. In several games, I thought that she was Angel City’s best player, and she should be a key member next year as well. As good as she was, I think that she can be even better.
That concludes my breakdown of the nine players that I’d protect. Next up: I’ll explain some of the notable names that I did not include, because I’m sure that a lot of people disagreed with at least a couple of these picks. Thanks for reading, and please feel free to share your thoughts.