ACFC 2-1 North Carolina Courage

So I’ll just let everyone know from the outset that I’m going to rain on the parade again. If you’d like to just bask in the glow of two wins in a row, and not worry about the underlying stats, then I totally get it, but you might want to skip this article. Personally, I don’t believe that individual results are a good predictor of long term success, due to the many, many variables in a soccer game. I think that the key word for me is sustainability; can a team continue to do the things that brought it success? And I feel like this was the not kind of performance that will consistently lead to that success. I want to acknowledge, though, that a win is a win. It’s important that we got two wins in a row. It’s important that after a week in which it would have been understandable for the team to feel dejected, they were gritty and determined and found a way to triumph. I love all of that, and those things can win games. But you need to play better soccer to win championships. That’s the level that I want to see Angel City playing at, and that’s why I’m going to be critical in this article.

The statistic that most people are going to look at for the match is possession, because that’s what North Carolina specializes in. They had 62% Possession in this match, and currently lead the league with an average of 58.6% Possession. I don’t actually mind that, because I think that a team without possession can still control a match. But that involves some lightning counterattacks, and when done correctly, will end with the team out of possession still generating a lot of shots, and the team with possession being kept at arm’s length, and not ever really getting into the penalty box. It becomes possession for possesion’s sake, passing the ball around the back four. That’s not what happened here. North Carolina outshot Angel City 15 to 5 (3 to 2 on target). They had 2.2 xG to Angel City’s .4 xG. North Carolina had 15 passes into the penalty box, while Angel City had 2. Just looking again at that xG for a moment, North Carolina had three separate chances of .4 xG, .51 xG, and .38 xG. Each of those individual chances is almost equal to (or greater) than Angel City managed as a team for the whole match. As it happened, though, only one of those three chances turned into a goal. And not because of anything we did; the other two were just off target. There’s also the matter of the Sanchez goal that was chalked off (correctly, I thought) for a marginal offside. North Carolina was always going to win possession, but they actually dominated almost all facets of the game.

Goals

I really enjoyed the analysis of the goals in the KC game, so I’m going to do that again here. I think there’s often a lot to learn by looking at what leads up to a goal, and not just the final moments. The first goal begins with ultimate scorer, Claire Emslie, winning the ball back at the halfway line. She steps in front of a North Carolina back pass on Angel City’s right side and deflects the ball back to Dougherty Howard. She passes it along to Rodriguez in the center of the pitch, who does a nice job to shake off a defender and accelerate up the pitch through the middle. As she enters the final third, Thompson and Leroux both make crisscrossing diagonal runs ahead of her, Leroux moving from center to the left, and Thompson from the left wing into the center. Notably, Thompson’s marker follows her into the center, but nobody follows Leroux. So I actually think that Rodriguez makes the wrong decision here, as she tries to slide the ball into Thompson at the top of the box. I don’t really blame Rodriguez on this, as Thompson is making a much more decisive run, and that’s always going to catch the eye, but Leroux was wide open on the left. The ball doesn’t make it to Thompson as she gets fouled on the edge of the box. I think that we get lucky here, because Kaleigh Kurtz didn’t need to foul Thompson. There was still another defender behind the ball, though I don’t think that Kurtz knew that. It looks like she sees Thompson getting behind her and just panics a little bit. But it earns us a free kick about 19 yards out, and Emslie converts it in impressive fashion. Can’t say enough about the quality of that free kick. Just perfect.

The second goal begins with an Angel City goal kick that Haračić hits long and goes immediately to a North Carolina player. However Thompson is able to pounce on the loose ball and sends it back to Spencer. There’s a nice little triangle of passing from Spencer to Rodriguez to Nabet with the Courage trying to press, which just opens up a pocket of space between North Carolina’s midfield and defense. Thompson receives the ball on the right, just before the halfway line and starts to drive towards the center. Just like the first goal, Leroux is switching with her, drifting out to the right, which helps open up that space for Thompson to get going. I think that Thompson is really at her best when she has speed, and she shows that here. Emslie’s been slowly drifting in from the left, until she’s at the center and makes her run in behind. Thompson plays an absolutely perfect ball here that completely cuts out five Courage defenders. Really, the weight, the accuracy, everything. It might be the best assist all season. Emslie still has a lot to do, though, and she makes the brave choice to chip the goalie, and it’s absolutely sublime. Perfect backspin, just inside the post. I loved this goal, and I would have loved to see Angel City playing directly like this more often.

There’s not a lot to say about North Carolina’s goal. It’s not exactly like Marta’s goal in the Orlando game, but some same ideas, namely leaving an attacker entirely unmarked on the far side of the field on a set piece. It just shouldn’t happen that anyone should be that open on a set piece. Also, just as a thought, I think that Bright could be more effective defending these set pieces if was starting from a deeper position. She looks like the best player at Angel City for winning aerial duels, and I’d like to see her in a position to attack the ball. This could just be because she was coming off the bench.

Lussi vs. Thompson

That North Carolina goal, of course, was scored by Tyler Lussi, someone Angel City fans know well. I was a big fan of Lussi’s when she was here. I thought she added physicality to the team, and I loved how she wouldn’t even blink about making a tactical foul. During her time at Angel City, she mostly played as a fullback, despite the fact that she’d never played it before, and she had 0 league goals during her time here. It’s interesting to see her come back to LA, playing her usual Right Wing position again, and I thought that she looked to have improved as a player from the one I saw when she was here.

As much as I like Lussi, though, I think that Alyssa Thompson is a much better attacker. Thompson, of course, came in the year that Lussi left, but I think that there is an interesting comparison to be made between the two, having watched both extensively. I think that if you had them go head-to-head in drills for straight speed, dribbling, shot power, shot accuracy, first touch, short passing, long passing, vision, and general technique, then Thompson would be the winner in every one of those categories. I feel like it’s safe to say I’m not alone in this, as Thompson has several USWNT callups and Lussi does not (though she was brought into the U-23s). But if we look at their statistics in games since Thompson joined the league, Lussi is the clear winner.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Lussi has 1489 minutes compared to 1596 for Thompson. Yet in that time, Lussi has 8 goals from 5.7 xG, while Thompson has 4 goals from 3.3 xG. Lussi has 50 shots (17 on target), and Thompson has 37 (10 on target). That’s 16% of Lussi’s shots turning into goals, and 10.8% of Thompson’s shots ending up in the net. I still would say that Thompson is the better shooter, based on the difficulty of goals that I have seen her score. One other interesting statistic: Thompson has 60 Shot Creating Actions during this time span, compared to 36 for Lussi, which I think does give some credit to the idea that Thompson is a better all-around attacker. So why the discrepency? When I watched Lussi on Sunday, she looked like a player that always knew where she was supposed to be and what she was supposed to do. She got three huge chances and finished one of them. North Carolina has a very defined structure and style, and it’s not surprising to me that when she joined them, she has played the best soccer of her career. She’s getting a high volume of chances, as well as high quality chances, and consequently is scoring goals. I think that if Alyssa Thompson was in her position on Sunday, she’d have had a hattrick from those three big chances. And that to me, is the issue. I think that Lussi is put in a position to succeed, while Thompson is not. I don’t see Thompson having a clearly defined role. She often seems hesitant about which run to make, or where she needs to be, and I think that a large part of that is Angel City still not really knowing what system to play in their third year. Maybe I’m wrong about the why, but the fact that Lussi, a player the club judged as not good enough to play Right Wing for Angel City, is outperforming Thompson, the player we drafted #1, and gave up $450,000 and a 2nd Round Draft Pick to aquire, should send up red flags.

Home Record

I was at the game on Sunday, but I also like to rewatch the broadcast when I can, and I was surprised to hear the commentators talking about how hard it was to play against Angel City at BMO and how it was one of the true fortresses in the league. I have a lot of memories walking back to my car in disappointment, but maybe this is me focusing on the negatives, so I wanted to look at what our record actually is. This year, of course, it’s 1W-0D-1L. All time, it’s 10W-4D-10L for Angel City at home. So I don’t think that we can call it a fortress if teams win as often as they lose when they visit, or as another way to look at it, if they walk away with at least a point 58.3% of the time. As another point of comparison, last year we finished with 31 points and Orlando also finished with 31 points. But our home record was 4W-2D-5L, while their record was 7W-0D-4L. So it’s not just that better teams have better home records. This is something that’s kind of bothered me for awhile in a low key way, because I think that we should have better home field advantage. We have bigger crowds than almost anyone, and I’ve been to two games at Snapdragon (the only stadium that has higher attendance). Frankly, they’re quieter than we are. We have a great stadium and great atmosphere, so I have no idea why Angel City doesn’t perform better at home, but there it is.

Haračić

Some might say that there’s a goalkeeper competition at Angel City right now. Anderson started the first three matches and Haračić started the next two. Angel City got 1 point from Anderson’s games and conceded an average of 2 goals a game, while they’ve gotten 6 points from Haračić’s games and conceded .5 goals a game. So maybe not too much of a competition, right? The thing is, 3 of Anderson’s Goals Against were because of losing the ball in the defensive third, either off a turnover from Anderson, or a turnover from a defender who just received a pass from Anderson. Distribution has been her biggest problem. The thing is Haračić hasn’t actually been better. In the game against North Carolina, she had multiple giveaways, the most egregious of which was in the 25’. From the right side of her goal, Haračić played the ball across to the left, straight to Tyler Lussi. Lussi took a touch and then put it just over the bar as a scrambling Haračić tried to get back. Had Lussi taken a first time shot and kept it on target, that would be a goal, because it was wide open. Or if Lussi had taken her touch, but then passed it to Sanchez, who was absolutely all alone in the middle of the box, that would also be a goal. There is also the disallowed goal for the Courage. Yes, Haračić was screened, but the ball went right through her. The offside call wasn’t by much, and had it stood, it would be a bad goal to concede. I would still start Haračić, personally. I think the defense does look a little bit more comfortable with her in net. But she is making mistakes. Our opposition just hasn’t been able to capitalize on them.

Conclusion

I really felt like we got lucky in this match, and that’s why I wasn’t enthused with the win. But maybe that’s just football. Maybe a draw here would have been fair, but a draw would probably also have been fair in the game against Bay FC. I’m trying to talk myself into a positive mindset. I think that Becki Tweed has the team fighting hard, but in the long term, I think that we can only get so far playing as the underdogs. However, I do think that the team is showing some progress, and honestly, I’m all for leaning into playing direct, gritty football. I think that suits the strengths of these players, and I’m fine with that being our identity. But we do need to figure out that identity, whatever it is, to get to the next level.

Next game is Friday April 26th at 7:00p PST at BMO and on Amazon Prime against KC Current. It will be a good indicator of how much progress has been made.